Is US entering Japan's nightmare? - Page 8

JerseyBoy · Sep 13, 2009, 16:34

At the end of the day, what counts is whether you (as an individual) have the asset and savings or not, because counting on the trickle-down from the national wealth (or the government) is like rolling a dice and hoping for the best. Once you have enough assets and savings (or, internationally marketable talents), you can pick and choose the place you want to live, work, or retire, without being restricted to the birth country.

Astroboy · Sep 20, 2009, 13:21

And US position is:

Contorary Japan position is:
Japan's net asset position amounted to 250.2 trillion yen at year-end 2007 -- a new record high for
the second consecutive year -- as a result of an increase of 35.1 trillion yen or 16.3 percent from
the previous year-end (215.1 trillion yen).
http://www.boj.or.jp/en/type/ronbun/...a/ron0808a.pdf

As the graph indicates, About 20% of US GDP is NATIONAL DEBT of USA (in other words, Foreigner's Asset). But as USA is a sovereign nation, being able to print USD note, US financial collapse is not realistic at this moment. In other words, when US govenment needs to repay it, they can print money and repay to creditors and borrow money again from auction, .... meaning ROLL-OVER continue.

It is possible for USA BECAUSE USD is the defacto international currency and UST-bond is the most Liquidable. But this means that foreigners owning USD assets need to undertake risks of Declining USD value.

This is WHY USA needs to maintain USD value as well as USD-based global capitalism. If the rest of world do not trust USD, then the times of USA will end.

Japan's new PM is interested in developing something Asian currency (like Euro). I suggest US government to stop such a movement in J-government. Otherwise, US economic strength must be deteriorated.

Astroboy · Oct 4, 2009, 13:20

Failed Bank List
http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/.../banklist.html
I stopped counting the list, but it's obvious that the total number of failed bank surpassed 100 since Sep 2009 ..... and Three more U.S. banks closed, nearly 100 for year http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv...59208120091003

But FRB/US government has already begun to talk about exit policy, ending government's stimulus package, and I don't hear any serious news from USA. (e.g. CNN).

Considering Japanese economy size is about 1/3 of USA .... if some 30 regional banks failed in Japan for a period of one year, I am very much sure that ALL Japanese TV/News Media will have great fuss about Collapse of J-economy, telling how terrible it is across Japan, Japan will end tomorrow ... crazy about government bashing and push government to do more about government-led economic stimulus plans, etc. etc. EVERYDAY.

To me.... it is likely that US news are very calm and TV broadcasters are being quite bullish, tough and looking confident....

Japanese media are too much pessimistic ? while US media are optimistic. Or anything else?

Astroboy · Oct 25, 2009, 16:50

US bank failures top 100 for year
The number of US bank failures this year has topped more than 100 after US federal regulators shut down a trio of small Florida banks. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8323565.stm

As I said in the above post, BBC reported.

100 bank failures may be a sign of next Tsunami of economic turmoil.

Astroboy · Nov 3, 2009, 17:16

CIT, Filing Statistics, Crusader, Charter, Crabtree: Bankruptcy
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=a7Gm8cp8MzP8

As far as I know, CIT is a major commercial bank, lending money to property business as well as many small-to-mid sized companies in USA. So, failture of CIT must be a big problem in US economy.

The point is .... While many US banks like CIT are failing, some financial companies in "Wall Street" have posted very high profits as they use (carry) Cheap USD to emerging markets. USD carry trade is likely to make US-government efforts (QE, record low base rate of FRB, etc.) wasted as low-interest rate money does not go to small-to-mid sized companies.

Needless to say, the US situation today is more than Japan's experience as the world economy is more globalized especially in financial business.

Astroboy · Nov 8, 2009, 01:18

US jobless rate rises to over 10%
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8346936.stm

An increase of unemployment rate means a declining consumer spending in near future. As consumer expenditure account for the largest share - over 70% - of US national economy (GDP). I suggest US government should continue more economic stimulus programme, meaning more government expenditure, and create more job. Otherwise, US economy will shrink more, meaning more sluggish.

It is too early to seek exit policy from JPANAESE experience.

Astroboy · Nov 16, 2009, 16:14

China says Fed policy threatens global recovery
The US Federal Reserve is fuelling “speculative investments” and endangering global recovery through loose monetary policy, a senior Chinese official warned on Sunday just hours before President Barack Obama arrived in China for his first visit.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/85f1fac2-d...nclick_check=1

What China points out is correct..... US FRB policy - continuously supplying cheap USD - is just making another "Bubble" in other countries.... But maybe US Fed aims to do so.

Dogen Z · Nov 17, 2009, 21:21

Originally Posted by Astroboy

China says Fed policy threatens global recovery
The US Federal Reserve is fuelling “speculative investments” and endangering global recovery through loose monetary policy, a senior Chinese official warned on Sunday just hours before President Barack Obama arrived in China for his first visit.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/85f1fac2-d...nclick_check=1
What China points out is correct..... US FRB policy - continuously supplying cheap USD - is just making another "Bubble" in other countries.... But maybe US Fed aims to do so.

I think China's main concern is that a cheap dollar makes raw materials more expensive for China since the yuan is more or less pegged to the dollar, causing inflationary pressure to build. So unless China's economy weakens, China will have to eventually loosen that peg, which is what the U.S. wants.

BTW, I wouldn't criticize the Fed if I were you. Japan's cheap yen policy probably contributed to causing the housing bubble.

Astroboy · Nov 22, 2009, 16:24

Originally Posted by Dogen Z

I think China's main concern is that a cheap dollar makes raw materials more expensive for China since the yuan is more or less pegged to the dollar, causing inflationary pressure to build. So unless China's economy weakens, China will have to eventually loosen that peg, which is what the U.S. wants.
BTW, I wouldn't criticize the Fed if I were you. Japan's cheap yen policy probably contributed to causing the housing bubble.

Japan's currency policy was/is a result of weak demand on borrowing. In short, less demand on cash in the market makes interest rate lower in order to stimulate cash demand in Japan. Contorary, US policy is not like that. Though more money supply is demanded by small-to-mid sized companies, money does not go there, but letting financial companies in Wallstreet utilize cheap US dollar to increase their profits in other countries. That's what I wanted to tell.

Sep 20, 2009, 13:21	#177
Astroboy Regular Member Join Date: Dec 5, 2007 Location: Tokyo, born in Kyoto Age: 29 Posts: 847	And US position is: Contorary Japan position is: Japan's net asset position amounted to 250.2 trillion yen at year-end 2007 -- a new record high for the second consecutive year -- as a result of an increase of 35.1 trillion yen or 16.3 percent from the previous year-end (215.1 trillion yen). http://www.boj.or.jp/en/type/ronbun/...a/ron0808a.pdf As the graph indicates, About 20% of US GDP is NATIONAL DEBT of USA (in other words, Foreigner's Asset). But as USA is a sovereign nation, being able to print USD note, US financial collapse is not realistic at this moment. In other words, when US govenment needs to repay it, they can print money and repay to creditors and borrow money again from auction, .... meaning ROLL-OVER continue. It is possible for USA BECAUSE USD is the defacto international currency and UST-bond is the most Liquidable. But this means that foreigners owning USD assets need to undertake risks of Declining USD value. This is WHY USA needs to maintain USD value as well as USD-based global capitalism. If the rest of world do not trust USD, then the times of USA will end. Japan's new PM is interested in developing something Asian currency (like Euro). I suggest US government to stop such a movement in J-government. Otherwise, US economic strength must be deteriorated. __________________ Life is beach, not Bch.** Last edited by Astroboy; Sep 20, 2009 at 15:43.

Nov 17, 2009, 21:21	#183
Dogen Z Nobuta Power 注入 Join Date: Apr 23, 2007 Location: 　渋谷　道玄坂 Posts: 875	Originally Posted by Astroboy China says Fed policy threatens global recovery The US Federal Reserve is fuelling “speculative investments” and endangering global recovery through loose monetary policy, a senior Chinese official warned on Sunday just hours before President Barack Obama arrived in China for his first visit. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/85f1fac2-d...nclick_check=1 What China points out is correct..... US FRB policy - continuously supplying cheap USD - is just making another "Bubble" in other countries.... But maybe US Fed aims to do so. I think China's main concern is that a cheap dollar makes raw materials more expensive for China since the yuan is more or less pegged to the dollar, causing inflationary pressure to build. So unless China's economy weakens, China will have to eventually loosen that peg, which is what the U.S. wants. BTW, I wouldn't criticize the Fed if I were you. Japan's cheap yen policy probably contributed to causing the housing bubble. __________________ 普通の幸せは十分です。

Nov 22, 2009, 16:24	#184
Astroboy Regular Member Join Date: Dec 5, 2007 Location: Tokyo, born in Kyoto Age: 29 Posts: 847	Originally Posted by Dogen Z I think China's main concern is that a cheap dollar makes raw materials more expensive for China since the yuan is more or less pegged to the dollar, causing inflationary pressure to build. So unless China's economy weakens, China will have to eventually loosen that peg, which is what the U.S. wants. BTW, I wouldn't criticize the Fed if I were you. Japan's cheap yen policy probably contributed to causing the housing bubble. Japan's currency policy was/is a result of weak demand on borrowing. In short, less demand on cash in the market makes interest rate lower in order to stimulate cash demand in Japan. Contorary, US policy is not like that. Though more money supply is demanded by small-to-mid sized companies, money does not go there, but letting financial companies in Wallstreet utilize cheap US dollar to increase their profits in other countries. That's what I wanted to tell.

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Sep 13, 2009, 16:34	#176
JerseyBoy Back in town Join Date: Dec 31, 2005 Location: Tokyo Posts: 535	At the end of the day, what counts is whether you (as an individual) have the asset and savings or not, because counting on the trickle-down from the national wealth (or the government) is like rolling a dice and hoping for the best. Once you have enough assets and savings (or, internationally marketable talents), you can pick and choose the place you want to live, work, or retire, without being restricted to the birth country.

Oct 4, 2009, 13:20	#178
Astroboy Regular Member Join Date: Dec 5, 2007 Location: Tokyo, born in Kyoto Age: 29 Posts: 847	Failed Bank List http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/.../banklist.html I stopped counting the list, but it's obvious that the total number of failed bank surpassed 100 since Sep 2009 ..... and Three more U.S. banks closed, nearly 100 for year http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv...59208120091003 But FRB/US government has already begun to talk about exit policy, ending government's stimulus package, and I don't hear any serious news from USA. (e.g. CNN). Considering Japanese economy size is about 1/3 of USA .... if some 30 regional banks failed in Japan for a period of one year, I am very much sure that ALL Japanese TV/News Media will have great fuss about Collapse of J-economy, telling how terrible it is across Japan, Japan will end tomorrow ... crazy about government bashing and push government to do more about government-led economic stimulus plans, etc. etc. EVERYDAY. To me.... it is likely that US news are very calm and TV broadcasters are being quite bullish, tough and looking confident.... Japanese media are too much pessimistic ? while US media are optimistic. Or anything else?

Oct 25, 2009, 16:50	#179
Astroboy Regular Member Join Date: Dec 5, 2007 Location: Tokyo, born in Kyoto Age: 29 Posts: 847	US bank failures top 100 for year The number of US bank failures this year has topped more than 100 after US federal regulators shut down a trio of small Florida banks. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8323565.stm As I said in the above post, BBC reported. 100 bank failures may be a sign of next Tsunami of economic turmoil.

Nov 3, 2009, 17:16	#180
Astroboy Regular Member Join Date: Dec 5, 2007 Location: Tokyo, born in Kyoto Age: 29 Posts: 847	CIT, Filing Statistics, Crusader, Charter, Crabtree: Bankruptcy http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=a7Gm8cp8MzP8 As far as I know, CIT is a major commercial bank, lending money to property business as well as many small-to-mid sized companies in USA. So, failture of CIT must be a big problem in US economy. The point is .... While many US banks like CIT are failing, some financial companies in "Wall Street" have posted very high profits as they use (carry) Cheap USD to emerging markets. USD carry trade is likely to make US-government efforts (QE, record low base rate of FRB, etc.) wasted as low-interest rate money does not go to small-to-mid sized companies. Needless to say, the US situation today is more than Japan's experience as the world economy is more globalized especially in financial business.

Nov 8, 2009, 01:18	#181
Astroboy Regular Member Join Date: Dec 5, 2007 Location: Tokyo, born in Kyoto Age: 29 Posts: 847	US jobless rate rises to over 10% http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8346936.stm An increase of unemployment rate means a declining consumer spending in near future. As consumer expenditure account for the largest share - over 70% - of US national economy (GDP). I suggest US government should continue more economic stimulus programme, meaning more government expenditure, and create more job. Otherwise, US economy will shrink more, meaning more sluggish. It is too early to seek exit policy from JPANAESE experience.

Nov 16, 2009, 16:14	#182
Astroboy Regular Member Join Date: Dec 5, 2007 Location: Tokyo, born in Kyoto Age: 29 Posts: 847	China says Fed policy threatens global recovery The US Federal Reserve is fuelling “speculative investments” and endangering global recovery through loose monetary policy, a senior Chinese official warned on Sunday just hours before President Barack Obama arrived in China for his first visit. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/85f1fac2-d...nclick_check=1 What China points out is correct..... US FRB policy - continuously supplying cheap USD - is just making another "Bubble" in other countries.... But maybe US Fed aims to do so.